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I'm not sure how you get your articles to show up here, so I'm just posting my first blog article. If this is bad form I apologize. I'm still learning.



Introducing Cappy
Or In this corner the downtrodden American Voter

By Cappy1507
Posted Sunday, October 31, 2004 on A true alternative to the red and blues
Discussion: Welcome


Allow me to introduce myself; I'm a man of wealth and taste.

Well, not really, and that's part of the reason I'm here. You can call me Cappy, for now, but I thought it was time to break free from the mold and speak to anyone who will listen about the issues and policies that should be shaping the country and the world. I am a registered Patriot Party Voter as the name of the blog suggests. I have voted in every presidential election since I turned 18. If you want to know where my votes have been cast:

Bush
Perot
Perot
Gore… this was more of a vote against a fiscally irresponsible tax cut than a vote for Gore.
Kerry... not officially yet but as of 10/20 I have moved from the undecided column to the Kerry column.

On 10/19 after researching the options carefully I was leaning toward Bush. One of the deciding factors was who I would trust not to push the button until the other missiles were already in the air. Really that's what it comes down to. Neither one of these guys really speaks to me directly, one is far too liberal, the other far too conservative. So I think I'll pick the guy who would rather talk than fight. I can picture Kerry on the phone talking to another world leader until the missiles were on RADAR. Bush on the other hand would be hitting it like the thing was a whack-a-mole game and he had a fist full of quarters.

I like the way Kerry thinks on domestic matters.

I’d like to see a return to spend as you go policies. You cannot run a deficit. I wouldn’t mind seeing a raise in taxes. The spending power of the American government is a powerful thing. I see taxes as charitable contributions. Balance the budget, reign in the deficit. Make sure my Parents are taken care of for the remainder of their days with Social Security, Medicare and I’ll look out for myself.

I think health care needs to be a priority, I didn’t vote for Clinton either time, mostly because Perot was the right man for the job. Not so much the second time, but the first time he would have cleaned house. I liked what the Clintons had to say about health care but I didn’t think they went far enough. I’d like to stress that I am not a socialist, and I don’t believe socialist health care a la Canada is the answer. Socialized Medicine WILL stymie research and development of cures. But I don’t understand how conservative thinkers can say this, and then prohibit the research on stem cells. I’m not saying we should broker or harvest embryos but I don’t see any reason to waste frozen embryos left of from fertility clinics. Bush’s ideas for health care are prehistoric, and geared at the very rich and the very poor, like most of his other programs. I can’t understand the support he has in the middle class. Trickle down economics has proven itself as a failure. Ron Reagan gave it 8 years to develop, and all we got was a huge deficit.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a basic health care policy in place so that everyone would have access to what is called Major Medical in some circles. But what I’d really like to see is very tight restrictions placed on Prescription drugs, and health care costs. I used to audit unpaid medical bills for a local hospital. You would be surprised by some of the things that go on. Yes, there are $12 dollar charges for aspirin. I think attacking the problem from a different angle is key, but we’ll get more into my proposed solutions later. For now we are talking about my vote and what decided it.

I like Kerry’s stance on outsourcing a lot. In my opinion he is far more progressive on the topic, and his views are very close to mine. As a victim of outsourcing on two fronts after my wife and I both lost our jobs to outsourcing in the last 6 years, my wife in April, this is an issue very close to home. You can’t talk about the economy in my opinion without talking about closing the gap on the trade deficit, and outsourcing.

Kerry’s MANBIC is a phenomenal idea, again far surpassing anything Bush had to offer. Modeled after SBIC, a proven winner, I think it will really jumpstart the manufacturing sector.

Lowering corporate taxes and giving new job tax cuts are also strong ideas to help put the economy on the fast track. I’m not really sure why people thought Bush’s tax cut was that great of an idea. How is giving rich people a tax cut going to stimulate the economy? Corporate tax cuts make more sense. The vast majority of purchases are made by companies and the government, not individuals. You give a rich guy a tax break he’s going to buy a boat. You give a corporation a tax cut and they will increase spending across several sectors and probably hire more people.

Education is another priority for me and again Kerry was the stronger of the two.

Homeland Security

On the whole I favored Bush on this subject. I thought he handled September 11th as best as we could have hoped. Right up until the invasion of Iraq. I’m not convinced that the whole invasion of Iraq was not a covert operation (done right out in the open) to maintain a military presence near Iran, and remove it from the Muslim Holy Lands in Saudi Arabia to ease terrorist tensions, and protect our interests in Israel. But that is more Foreign Policy than domestic protection.

After much deliberation, I had to lower the weight I gave to this particular set of issues as a whole. I think for the most part the fact that a Department of Homeland Security even exists right now, is a huge step in the right direction. I would feel very safe if John Kerry won the election and offered this directorship to GWB. Never happen, but talk about the best of both worlds. It is the one set of issues that I give over to Bush almost in its entirety.

Foreign Policy & The War In Iraq

This is where I really made my decision. I think GWB is too over the top for Foreign Policy and Kerry a shade too soft, but I do not like the Maverick Mentality of GWB. I know that there is only 4 fewer countries in this coalition than there was in the first Gulf War, but I didn’t like the feel of how this all played out. I for one would vote GWB in an instant, if we found stockpiles of WMD, and a viable nuclear program, and a money trail to Osama bin Laden. But he struck out swinging. Next batter. If his information was that bad, then he is to blame. If the stuff was really there and spirited out of the country in the dark of night right before we invaded and we cannot track it down, then he was outsmarted by Saddam Hussein and he was to blame. If there was never any real threat and this was revenge then he was to blame. Remember the sign on Truman’s desk… The Buck Stops Here.

Conservatives ask “is the world a better place with Saddam Hussein out of power?” On the surface the answer to that is of course yes. And If Kerry loses then it will because he didn’t answer this question correctly.

There is a deeper, darker side to that question. Did taking Saddam out of power, and all the positives that go with that, when placed on a balance against the negatives - make the world a better place? Are the Muslim Fanatic’s cries of oppression by the great Satan that much harder to deny? Did the harsh way we handled our allies diplomatically tarnish the US image overseas? Did the posturing and grandstanding against Russia and China increase tensions at a time those three countries needed to form an alliance against nuclear proliferation and rogue states, whether they be Al Qaeda, Chechnya, or North Korea? Will it have a lasting effect on our relationship with China as we try to negotiate with North Korea? Did it go a long way towards proving Kim Jong Ills claims to his people of Americas Imperialistic ways, eliminating the North Korean people as a possible ally should it ever come down to military force on the Korean peninsula?

If we had found proof; and if we had finished the job, and left no doubt, and if we would have protected the Iraqis from the insurgents (far more of them have died than American Soldiers) then we could look the world in the eyes and say we were sorry for stepping on their toes, but somebody had to do something and there wasn’t any time to argue. But we didn’t and only some skillful tap dancing by GWB left us looking any more foolish than we did. Can he keep up this song and dance for another 4 years should he win?

And so I come back to when the pressure is mounting and the nuclear threat is growing, do I want a Maverick Texas Cowboy or a Catholic School Boy with his finger on the button.

Comments
on Nov 01, 2004
I would say it is in the right channel, you do know you can make your own blog if you visit www.joeuser.com and click on create blog?

Interesting post, good for you on voting.

Badnarik Plinko!!
on Nov 01, 2004
This is from my joeuser blog it just didn't show up here, or under new articles. I must have created it wrong or something.

And thank you
on Nov 01, 2004
Socialized Medicine WILL stymie research and development of cures. But I don’t understand how conservative thinkers can say this, and then prohibit the research on stem cells


Research on stem cells has NOT been prohibited or banned! Argh!
Sorry, but I thought this canard had been beat to death already.

Here's the three most common things you'll hear about it:
Pro-Bush spin: The President has provided more funding for Stem-cell research than any other president ever. (Technically true, leaving off some caveats..)
Straight-up information: This administration has identified about 79 lines of stem cell types (?) that were known as of the time of the law-making. The law that passed was that research into those 79 lines was eligible for federal research grants. Other lines are not eligible for free money.
Anti-Bush spin: The president banned stem cell research. (Absolutely and unequivocally false.)
on Nov 01, 2004
The Clinton Administration published guidelines governing the use of human embryonic stem cells in the Federal Register on August 23, 2000. On April 25, 2001, a scheduled review of pending grant applications was postponed to provide President George W. Bush and his new Administration an opportunity to review the issue. On August 9, 2001, President Bush issued a long-awaited decision on stem cell research. He authorized funding of stem cell research using existing pluripotent stem cell lines that were derived from human embryos before August 9. Such research is eligible for Federal funding if the following criteria are met: 1) there must have been informed consent of the donors, 2) the embryos must have been created for reproductive purposes and in excess of clinical need, 3) there must not have been any financial inducements to the donors, and 4) the embryos must not have been created for research purposes. During fiscal year (FY) 2002, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded the first grants to conduct human embryonic stem cell research, including both new grants and supplements to existing grants.

You are absolutely correct, GWB did not ban stem cell research. He severly hampered the progress of research by banning federal funding outside of the current 79 lines of cells. only about 54 are capable of use, meanwhile other countries are moving ahead of our research ability/

Though discussion continues, President Bush said the debate is over. "The statement I laid out is what I think is right for America today," the president told reporters in mid-August. "And any piece of legislation that undermines what I think is right will be vetoed."

on Nov 02, 2004
First, let me say I respect your decision, it is clear you have done well with regard to informing yourself, well thought out and coherent. The only place I would really disagree with your reasoning is on health care. I can understand and respect your reasoning on Foreign Policy and Iraq (even if I don't agree with the conclusions, but I also think the U.N. has become little more than a dog and pony show and it wouldn't bother me a bit if the U.S. withdrew from it and moved the base elsewhere).

Bush’s ideas for health care are prehistoric, and geared at the very rich and the very poor, like most of his other programs.


I'm sorry, but this is just false. In actuality, the Kerry plan saves more health care spending dollars for those making OVER $250,000 than any other tax bracket than the lowest ($10,000 AGI and under) and the Bush plan places the greatest burden on the "Rich" (over $250 K). The net change in family health spending, by income, for the Kerry plan is $505 savings for those over 250 K and only $409 for those in the 20 to 30 K range. Whereas, in the Bush plan, the only income group with a reduction is the bottom bracket. (ref Lewin Group, "Lewin Analysis Candidates Proposals"). The distribution of benefits for both plans is similar (with the Kerry plan having a MUCH higher price tag) but the Bush plan slightly favors the poor more than Kerry's and places the greater burden on those making over $75 K (under the Bush plan those making over $250 K have to spend more - $323, compared to the $505 savings Kerry's plan gives them).

The Kerry plan does less to save on medical malpractice reform ($7 B over 10 years) than the Bush plan ($26.8 B over 10 years). The Kerry plan also places an enormous burden on the Federal Government by adding over 21 million to medicaid (over 70% increase in medicaid rolls, this is done by significantly increasing medicaid eligibility).

The Bush plan saves the average Joe on insurance premiums by allowing HSA accounts. A typical premium for an individual major medical policy for a 40 year old single male non-smoker is about $260 per month. A High deductible HSA medical policy for that same individual is around $110 per month. An HSA (Health Savings Account) can then be set up that allows pre tax savings. Money put into the HSA can be used for medical expenses (deductibles, etc.) however, if the money saved does not get used it carries over, at age 65 the money is the individuals to roll over to an IRA, or use. Employers can (and are) switching to High deductible plans and putting the premium savings in the employees account which they then own. For a person that remains relatively healthy (and for people that don't immediately have a catastrophic illness) it puts the money in their pocket instead of throwing it down the Insurance companies gullet. If there is an immediate catastrophic illness, the individual is still covered with little more out of pocket than with the prior policy. In some instances, the dedcutibles are no different than before.

If you are concerned about the deficit you may want to consider where the money to fund an estimated $1.25 Trillion (over 10 years) entitlement program is going to come from under the Kerry plan. The Kerry plan costs $69 B in the FIRST year and rises to $174 B in 2015. Also, as with all entitlement program estimates from the past, it is likely to cost way more (the goverment just has not been very good at predicting costs, partially due to circumstances which can't accurately be predicted).

on Nov 02, 2004

Reply #5 By: T B - 11/2/2004 12:04:41 AM
If you are concerned about the deficit you may want to consider where the money to fund an estimated $1.25 Trillion (over 10 years) entitlement program is going to come from under the Kerry plan. The Kerry plan costs $69 B in the FIRST year and rises to $174 B in 2015. Also, as with all entitlement program estimates from the past, it is likely to cost way more (the goverment just has not been very good at predicting costs, partially due to circumstances which can't accurately be predicted).



They don't care where it comes from. Or else they think his tax roll-back will cover it.

on Nov 02, 2004
From GWB.com - President Bush will propose a tax credit for low-income families and individuals to purchase health insurance, or to purchase a low-premium, high-deductible health plan and an HSA.

Most of his Health plan is based around Low income families. Where as Kerry's plan will help my Employer lower their insurance cost, raising my salary, and increaseing the the federal tax base. The single largest non recouperable expense of my company is health care premiums. HSA's have been around for years, that's why I deem them prehistoric. They're a great idea, and I had one when for a while the paper work is maddening, and you DO NOT get the big Insurance company write offs. Forinstance, if I go to the er and I am not admitted, my Insurance company pays about 20% of the bill and gets a huge deduction because they have an agreement with the hospital. This is based on the standard medicare payment. I end up paying about a $45 dollar copy. With out insurance using an HSA I pay the whole bill, no thanks.

GWB Plan:
Provide an Above-the-Line Deduction for Health Insurance Premiums - President Bush has proposed to allow individuals who purchase low-premium, high-deductible insurances policies to deduct the premiums they pay for these policies. It will reduce the net cost of these policies and encourage the use of HSAs for saving for health care needs and making wise, cost-effective health care choices.

low-premium, high-deductible insurances policies - That means $200 premiums, and $1000 deductibles. Any less than that and you need to make less than 15k a year.

GWB Plan:
Promote a Health Savings Account Tax Credit to Help Small Business Employees - President Bush will propose a tax credit for HSA contributions to help individuals and families who work for small businesses fund their HSAs. Small businesses and their employees who set up an HSA will get a tax rebate for contributions to the HSA of up to $500 per worker with family coverage and $200 per worker with individual coverage.

Another $500 hand out? And only if I work for a small Business?

They don't care where it comes from. Or else they think his tax roll-back will cover it.


Kerry's plan may cost more than Bush's but you get what you pay for. It attacks health care from many angles.It lowers costs not only for individuals, but for coporations, who will pass that on to their workers.

Kerry:
Share Savings with Workers. By substantially reducing catastrophic costs, John Kerry's proposal will make it easier for employers to offer affordable coverage. Firms will be able to provide higher wages, maintain benefits, and make investments that help employers and workers alike. Health economists predict that these savings will automatically be passed onto workers in the form of higher wages and/or other forms of compensation. If employees do not share in the savings, the Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Secretary of Labor would develop policy options to ensure that employers do share these savings with workers.

The inflated numbers your quoting are based on much larger numbers of enrollment than most experts predict. And really lets just say Bush's numers are just as bad as Kerry's.


Link

Excerpt

The Lewin report is by no means all bad for Kerry. It confirms that he would ind
eed cover a big chunk of the uninsured. Thorpe figured the Democrat would pick up 28 million of the 45 million who are now without coverage, AEI estimated 27.3 million, and Lewin projects 25 million. Bush would cover between 2 million and 8 million, depending on whose estimate you believe. The Lewin study also credits Kerry with lowering average family health-care costs by $450 a year, while Bush's plan would actually raise costs slightly.
And while the consulting firm figures the cost of Kerry's plan is twice what the Democrat claims, it also calculates that Bush has, umm, misunderestimated the cost of his plan as well. Lewin figures its price tag would be $227 billion instead of $90 billion that the President claims.

Kerry can scale back some of his proposals to make it more affordable. For instance, he would have Washington pick up the costs for expanding state-run health insurance for poor adults and children. Lewin figures that would result in a $343 billion windfall to states -- much more than Kerry intends. If Lewin is right, Kerry could adjust his plan accordingly. Lewin also figures Kerry's scheme to subsidize employer premiums by about 10% would cost a staggering $700 billion -- far more than AEI and Thorpe figure. If Lewin is correct, that part of the plan will also have to be trimmed.

Kerry can pull it off, but will probably need to make adjustments. Bush though is clearly worse.



on Nov 02, 2004
Very well written posts, Cappy. Your concerns are valid, and you are obviously a very passionate and caring individual. Please take some time to view Stolen Honor at www.stolenhonor.com, and determine for yourself if Kerry is, indeed, the right candidate to address the issues you are concerned about.

I would also take a closer look at how he voted (as a Senator), with regards to some of the issues you are concerned about. You mentioned Medicare, and that is also a concern for me as one of my loved ones is currently affected by this and more are approaching the age where they will be. While Kerry blamed Bush for increased Medicare premiums, I found it interesting that the increase was actually a result of a law that Senator Kerry voted for in 1997 (passed by Clinton).

It's also interesting that you brought up missiles, and who would strike first, in your first post. Take a look at this picture of Saddam's throne in Baghdad:


on Nov 02, 2004
HSA's have been around for years


Actually, HSA's are new. There used to be something similar called an MSA which has been stopped (I'm pretty certain in 2003) with the introduction of HSA's which replace them. Maybe you had an MSA? HSA's are pretty simple, you can open one at any bank as soon as you have the HDHP (and without the HDHP you can't legally have an HSA).

Another $500 hand out?


Well, the Kerry credits cost 42% more. A bigger handout?

The Lewin report is by no means all bad for Kerry


Agreed. I use the Lewin Report because their model is most accurate of the 3 (the other 2 left out info, which why the Bush plan in Lewin costs more).

Thorpe figured the Democrat would pick up 28 million of the 45 million who are now without coverage, AEI estimated 27.3 million, and Lewin projects 25 million


Yes, and the bulk of them (over 20 million or around 80%) go on Medicaid.

The Lewin study also credits Kerry with lowering average family health-care costs by $450 a year


Yes, and that is an average, the Richest people save more than average. Why save people making over $250 K per year? Isn't that more than a little incongruent with the "help the middle class" mantra?

Bush though is clearly worse


On this I guess we'll just have to disagree. I consider adding millions to an entitlement program the far greater evil.
on Nov 02, 2004
Bush though is clearly worse


On this I guess we'll just have to disagree. I consider adding millions to an entitlement program the far greater evil.


Actually that last bit was part of the article I excerpted, and not me.

But I find nothing in the bush health plan that says "HEY MIDDLE INCOME PEOPLE" this is for you. While Kerry's clearly does. DOn't forget this plan isn't anything spectacular, it's just solid helath care. The rich folks are going to keep their high premium bell and whistle policies because they can afford them. And saving $500 IS NOT going to be a big deal to someone that make over 250K a year. It's there if they want it, but they won't.

Let me ask you this. The government is selling Honda Civics for $250, the only conditiion is it's the only car you can own. You own a Lexus, and you pay twice that a month in payments, but so what, you have the money, and IT IS A Lexsus after all and a hell of a lot better than a Honda. Are you going to trade in you Lexus for that Civic? This is what Kerry was trying to say, but failed to get out eloquently at the debates, when he kept saying no-one was forced to take the policy, and if you wanted to keep paying your higher premiums that was fine too.

Infact, many people wil lnot make the shift to the new policy because the savings won't make enough of a difference. The main idea is to make it more affordable to people struggling to keep Health insurance whether they are small busineeses or indiuviduals, not create 1 plan for the whole nation.
on Nov 02, 2004
Actually that last bit was part of the article I excerpted, and not me.


Oops. Nevermind

And saving $500 IS NOT going to be a big deal to someone that make over 250K a year


I agree, but it will cost the government a fortune to give it to them. The savings comes from the employer reduction in premium due in part to the catastrophic illness rebates and tax credits, not the Exec's jumping ship to a new plan.

Infact, many people will not make the shift to the new policy because the savings won't make enough of a difference


This is one of the biggest problems with the analyses. Ever here of premium spiral? Let's say there is a small group (partial employee pay -15 employees) and 2 have had significant health problems, as a result the group premium is significantly higher on average. Well, tell me, do the younger and healthier employees want to pay higher overall rates because of the unhealthy group? What happens when they jump ship? The group rates go UP on average. There is no way to avoid adverse selection if the CHP is made available to everyone that wants it.

on Nov 02, 2004
A
Ever here of premium spiral? Let's say there is a small group (partial employee pay -15 employees) and 2 have had significant health problems, as a result the group premium is significantly higher on average.


Yes this happened at my current employeer. I sliced open my arm last year, a friend of mine from work recked his motorcycle, another feel on the ace and broke her arm badly, and another guy was diagnosed with lung cancer and had to have part of one lung removed. We had to switch insurance because our company shot our rates through the roof. If I'm not mistaken the Kerry's plan addresses this while Bushed doesn't even mention it. Kerry's plan would be assisting my company in covering it's employees, while Bushes plan would have our money in an account to pay the bills ourselves. Frankly I couldn't afford it. Bushes plan does nothing for me, a midle class guy with insurance, as my company struggles year in and year out to balance the cost of health care with the cost of retaining employees. They know if they drop health care most of their workers would bolt. But the costs are getting more and more prohinitive.

I don't think Bush's plan is bad if your poor, but if your middle class like me it's a vacuume. (It sucks) lol.